By: Nathaniel Greene, Community & Culture Reporter

A national briefing hosted by Ethnic Media Services on Friday, Sept. 6, highlighted the increasing significance of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islanders (AANHPIs) in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. With over 15 million eligible AANHPI voters, many of them first-time voters, mobilization efforts in battleground states could make AANHPIs the decisive margin of victory on November 5.

The Power of AANHPI Voters in Swing States

Shekar Narasimhan, Founder and Chairman of the AAPI Victory Fund, opened the briefing with data-driven insights into the potential impact of AANHPI voters. He noted that in the seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — AANHPI voters represent a crucial 1.75 million eligible voters. These states will ultimately determine the next U.S. President, with Narasimhan emphasizing that in tight elections, even a 3-4% swing among AANHPI voters could alter the results.

“In the 2020 presidential election, the margin of victory in these key states was 385,000 votes,” Narasimhan explained. “In the three closest states — Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin — the total margin was only 45,000 votes. AANHPIs were pivotal in these outcomes.”

He urged campaigns to directly engage with AANHPI communities, emphasizing the need for year-round, issue-focused dialogue rather than sporadic engagement close to election day.

Mobilization and Localized Efforts

Christine Chen, co-Founder and Executive Director of APIAVote, further illustrated the growing engagement among AANHPI communities, particularly noting the rise in voter registration.

“Since 2020, voter registration among AANHPIs has grown at a rate of 1.28 times faster than the citizen voting-age population,” Chen shared. “In battleground states like Georgia, 26% of AANHPI voters in 2021 were first-time voters.”

Chen pointed out that jobs, healthcare, inflation, and crime are among the top concerns for AANHPI voters. Despite this rising engagement, 42% of AANHPI voters reported they were never contacted by political parties, underscoring the need for increased outreach.

On-the-Ground Advocacy in Swing States

Mohan Seshadri, Executive Director of the Asian Pacific Islander Political Alliance, highlighted his organization’s efforts in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state. He shared that in 2020, the Asian American vote in Pennsylvania doubled, contributing significantly to President Biden’s victory.

“Our mission is not just to win elections,” Seshadri said, “but to build year-round power for Asian Americans. We’re knocking on 500,000 doors and making 5 million phone calls in 22 languages.”

Seshadri’s focus on localized issues—such as fighting for the protection of Philadelphia’s Chinatown against predatory development—illustrates how AANHPI political activism goes beyond just election season.

A Shift in AANHPI Political Loyalties?

Professor James Zarsadiaz, an Associate Professor of History at the University of San Francisco, offered insights into potential political shifts within the AANHPI electorate. Historically, Asian Americans leaned Republican until the early 2000s, but that trend has reversed in recent decades. Zarsadiaz pointed to key moments such as the rise of anti-immigrant rhetoric and the handling of affirmative action as catalysts for change.

However, he cautioned that while the AANHPI electorate has leaned Democratic, there is evidence of a swing back to conservative politics, particularly among older and more affluent voters concerned about crime and economic issues.

Republican Outreach and Challenges

Republican strategist Rina Shah discussed the efforts of the GOP to engage AANHPI voters, especially independents. While acknowledging past criticisms that Republican outreach to these communities often comes too late, Shah highlighted the growing number of independents in the AANHPI electorate.

“According to a 2024 Pew Research report, 40% of Asian Americans now identify as independent, up from 33% just a few years ago,” Shah said.

The challenge for both parties, she noted, is in addressing the specific concerns of AANHPI communities while engaging them in meaningful dialogue.

As November 5 approaches, the AANHPI vote is increasingly being recognized as a decisive factor, particularly in swing states. With millions of eligible voters, many of them first-time participants in the electoral process, targeted outreach, education on issues, and sustained engagement are essential to ensuring that this growing electorate makes its voice heard.

The briefing provided a clear message: the 2024 election is an opportunity for both parties to invest in AANHPI communities—not just for electoral success, but to foster long-term political empowerment.